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        1. 揭秘:甲午戰爭前李鴻章為何避戰求和?

            臨戰之際和戰爭之中,李鴻章光緒皇帝是兩個關聯密切并可資比較的重要人物。李鴻章是清方參與決策并在很大程度上掌控軍隊的實力派要員;而光緒皇帝,正在“親政”期間,是有一定“實權”的時候,在指揮戰爭、掌控全局方面也試圖有所作為。戰爭正式打響的前夕,面對日方咄咄逼人、戰事似已不可避免的形勢,光緒皇帝的主戰態度是比較堅決的,屢催身膺重寄、統帥淮軍和北洋軍隊的李鴻章積極籌劃,應對戰事。7月16日,又通過軍機處電寄李鴻章這樣一道諭旨:

            現在倭韓情事已將決裂,如勢不可免,朝廷一意主戰。李鴻章身膺重寄,熟諳兵事,斷不可意存畏葸。著凜遵前旨,將布置進兵一切事宜迅籌復奏。若顧慮不前,徒事延宕,馴致貽誤事機,定惟該大臣是問!

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            從這道諭旨的口氣,就可以品出光緒皇帝對李鴻章的督責之切和對他戰備不力、“徒事延宕”的不滿。的確,李鴻章是實在不希望打起仗來。要說,在戰前可能的條件下,就清朝方面而言,盡量爭取化解矛盾、避免戰爭是應該的。為此,李鴻章主張中日雙方同時從日本撤軍,這自然是合理的。這一點若能落實,自是息事的可取措施。但日本方面并不答應。隨后,李鴻章又傾向于清朝單方面從朝鮮撤軍,但光緒皇帝明確否定,在給李鴻章的諭旨中說:“彼頓兵不動,我先行撤退,既嫌示弱,且將來進剿,徒勞往返,屬殊非計。”② 既然光緒皇帝有此指令,清朝單方面撤軍的設想也就不能落實。問題是若實行清朝單方面撤軍是否可取。有資深的研究者是持肯定態度的,認為:“如果中國在雙方撤軍談判失敗的情況下,宣布根據朝鮮政府的要求(當時朝鮮有這種要求——引者)而單方面撤軍,未始不是切實可行的措施。因為日本當時已經在外交上處于不利的地位,如果中國軍隊一旦撤離朝境,那末,它不僅在外交上更加孤立,而且想把清軍拖住的陰謀必然破產……所以,在此階段中,李鴻章保全和局的想法不見得全錯,是無可厚非的。”當然,同時也指出了他認識上的缺陷:“問題是他未能洞察奸謀,及早采取相應的策略。果真如此的話,日本盡管還會玩弄各種花招,但要想急于挑起釁端則勢所難能了。”① 應該說這是很有道理的。

            對于以牙還牙地抗御日本方面來說,光緒皇帝的態度似乎比李鴻章要堅決和持正。并且,日本方面是蓄意借機激化矛盾制造釁端者,公理和正義絕對是在中國方面。這一點,連有的外國人士也不否認,但是又認為僅僅靠此不行。像英國人赫德就這樣指出:

            日本是根本沒有正義可言的,除非借口代別人打抱不平而自己撿便宜也可以算作正義。正義完全在中國方面。我不信單靠正義可以成事,正像我單拿一根筷子不能吃飯那樣,我們必須要有第二根筷子——實力。但是,中國人卻以為自己有充分的正義,并且希望能夠以它來制服日本的鐵拳,這想法未免太天真了。②

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            實際上,不光是“老道”的李鴻章,即使年輕的光緒皇帝,也決不是這般天真之輩。他也不是要不顧一切、不知深淺地非打不可,并不放棄“通融”和了的努力。且看他給李鴻章的這一諭旨:“倭人以重兵突至朝鮮,肆其挾制;現復愿與中國商議,以共保朝鮮為詞,似尚有所顧忌。如果無礙中朝體制,無損朝鮮權力,原不妨量予通融,以全大局。然倭情叵測,議之成否,尚難逆料。若待事之決裂而后議戰議守,勢已無及,不可不先事籌備。著李鴻章預為籌劃,水陸各軍如何分進,糧餉軍火如何轉運,沿海要口如何防守,一切事宜,熟籌調度,謀定后動,方可迅赴戎機。”① 看,這不是在形勢發展難以預料的情況下,要做戰、和兩手準備的籌策嗎?倒是李鴻章在“戰”的一手上的準備明顯疲軟。光緒皇帝也不可能不掂量自己國家的實力,特別是軍隊和武備情況。在戰爭爆發前的7月初,他就急切追問李鴻章所統海陸軍的詳細情況:“究竟海軍新練之兵共有若干?此外北洋分扎沿海防軍若干?及直隸綠營兵丁可備戰守者若干?”李鴻章在復奏中報告:

            北洋現有鎮遠、定遠鐵甲兩艘,濟遠、致遠、靖遠、輕遠、來遠快船五艘,均系購自外洋;平遠快船一艘,造自閩廠。前奏所云戰艦,即指此八艘而言。此外超勇、揚威兩船,均系舊式;四鎮蚊炮船,僅系守口;威遠、康濟、敏捷三船,專備教練學生;利運一船專備轉運糧械。如戰艦所配員弁,機輪、槍炮各有專司。歷考西洋海軍規制,但以船之新舊、炮之大小遲速分強弱,不以人數多寡為較量。自光緒十四年后,并未添購一船;操演雖動,戰艦過少。

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            沿海陸軍,除膠州臺工經始未成外,山東威海衛則綏鞏軍八營、護軍兩營,奉天大連灣則銘軍十營,旅順口則四川提鎮宋慶毅軍八營、又親慶軍六營,山東煙臺則嵩武軍四營,直隸北塘口仁字兩營,大沽口炮隊六百七十名:臣前折所謂分布直東奉三省海口把守炮臺合計兩萬人者指此。其分駐天津青縣之盛軍馬步十六營,軍糧城之銘軍馬隊兩營,皆填扎后路,以備畿輔游擊策應之師。至于綠營兵丁,疲弱已久,自前督臣曾國藩及臣創辦練軍,漸收實用。無如直隸地面遼闊,與東、奉、晉、豫接壤,北界多倫、圍場,皆盜賊出沒之區,經年扼要巡防,備多力分,斷難抽調遠役。{1}

            這是李鴻章就自己所轄北洋區域內的武力家底,開列給皇帝的一份詳明“菜單”。我們原原本本地把它迻錄在這里,對甲午戰爭中清朝作為主力投入的北洋部隊,也就亮出了一個大致的底數。再就是,從李鴻章的奏陳中也能體察出,他申說以北洋武力應戰捉襟見肘的意思。這也是他從一開始就以避戰求和為主導傾向的重要根源所在。

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